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2018 US Holiday Season E-commerce Forecast Report: Sales Increased By 14.8% To $124 Billion, The Largest Online Shopping Day
- Dec 08, 2018 -

According to the holiday season online shopping forecast released by Adobe, the US retail market is expected to generate $124.1 billion in e-commerce sales this holiday season, up 14.8% from last year, while offline retail spending is expected to grow 2.7%.


Adobe Analytics, an Adobe company, analyzes up to 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 55 million SKUs, and 80 of the top 100 retailers in the US, including large, medium, and small, covering more than 50 product categories. Retailer. In October, the company also surveyed more than 1,000 American consumers. It can be seen that this Adobe research is supported by strong data.


Some "God-level records" that will appear in the 2018 holiday season

The company expects Cyber Monday sales to reach a record $7.7 billion, up 17.6% year-on-year, which will help it become the largest and fastest-growing online shopping day in the US.


Adobe expects that the revenue generated by NetOne on the same day from 7:00 to 10:00 pm will exceed the annual average daily revenue level, and the conversion rate will reach the highest of 7.3% in the year.


In addition, sales during the Thanksgiving period are expected to increase by 16.5% to reach $3.3 billion. Adobe's data shows that online spending during Thanksgiving and Net One will account for nearly 20% of online holiday spending this holiday season, with sales reaching $23.4 billion, an increase of 19%.


Adobe said that the interval between the Internet and Christmas this year is one more than last year, which will bring retail sales growth of 284 million US dollars.


John Copeland, head of Adobe's marketing and customer watch division, said in a press release: "With the proliferation of online shopping and another record holiday shopping season, retailers with compelling websites and physical stores will More advantage. Many shoppers want to be able to physically contact the retailer's products and in-store brands, and the potential for self-supplied goods within a few hours is not to be underestimated."


Adobe said that online retailers with both online and physical stores are expected to have an online conversion rate of 28% higher than retailers that lack traditional storefronts.


The survey found that more and more consumers will choose the "Online Buying, In-Store (BOPIS)" service during the holidays. Since January, the number of consumers who have chosen BOPS services has increased by 119% among all retailers and by 250% among large retailers.


According to the survey, 47% of consumers want to browse online products they want to shop online, and this percentage has risen to 58% in millennials.


Other forecast data for the 2018 holiday season

• The period when the product discount is the strongest


Adobe also based on past data to predict the best period for online shopping product categories during the holiday season. According to Adobe, the most popular categories of goods during Black Five include electronics, television and computers. On the day before the arrival of Net One, the categories of clothing, electrical appliances and jewellery were the most popular. Toys during the Net One period will offer the greatest discount. Thanksgiving Day (Giving Tuesday, the first Tuesday after Thanksgiving) will offer furniture and bedding offers, while Thanksgiving is the best time to buy sporting goods.


• Mobile is a big sales opportunity


Smartphones are still the preferred device for online shopping, accounting for 48.3% of traffic and 27.2% of revenue. It is expected that e-commerce sales in the mobile phone category will increase by 11.6%. However, due to the unsatisfactory checkout experience, the shopping cart order completed on the M side is 20% less than on the PC side. Adobe estimates that narrowing this gap is equivalent to $9 billion in mobile sales. In addition, sales of tablet PCs are declining, accounting for only 8.8% of website visits, down from 30% four years ago, and only accounted for 9.6% of sales.


Adobe expects consumers who use mobile apps to spend more time browsing and more than twice as many mobile pages.


• Emerging shopping trends


According to Adobe's data, voice assistant shopping is on the rise, with 21% of consumers saying they plan to use voice assistants to reorder frequently purchased items, and 17% of consumers said they would make a one-time order and pick up the goods themselves.


Adobe expects holiday shoppers to place orders and returns more frequently than at other times this year. And more consumers will choose to stay at home on Thanksgiving Day, 60% plan to rely on the sofa, a 20% increase compared to 2016.


• TOP marketing channels that drive sales growth


According to Adobe, for retailers, the marketing channel that best drives sales growth will be loyal customers who use direct access to their websites for purchases, and the single visitor value (RPV) performance of the channel will rise to 36%. The search channel has the highest RPV growth rate of 23%, followed by a secondary website (15%) such as the US coupon website RetailMeNot and an email marketing channel (8%).


According to Adobe's data, the RPV of social recommendation traffic will be reduced by 11% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. Despite the increase in social referral traffic, it is the only marketing channel for RPV decline. This is mainly due to the decline in consumer trust in social networks. It is estimated that this year, shoppers will reduce the number of gift ideas on the social media website by 25%.